Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Both writes two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has got something to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
